Project management under uncertainty

Morris' (1986) analysis of the factors affecting project success and failure is considered in relation to the psychology of judgement under uncertainty. A model is proposed whereby project managers may identify the specific circumstances in which human decision-making is prone to systematic error, and hence may apply a number of de-biasing techniques

Twenty first century standards for thermal comfort : fostering low carbon building design and operation

Nearly 50% of energy consumed in the developed world is consumed in buildings. Despite regulation intent, many new buildings are energy profligate. Thermal comfort standards are partly responsible for this increase in consumption. In this volume, Roaf et al. have described the evolution of current comfort standards and problems inherent in buildings they shape, and have discussed two new methods of regulating thermal comfort in buildings which recognize human adaptation and have potential for reduced energy demand. These new methods incorporate adaptation through a fixed heating and cooling threshold approach (similar to Japanese Cool-Biz) or through heating and cooling setpoints calculated based on outdoor conditions(using CEN standard equations). The impact on comfort and energy demand of these new approaches is investigated for a London office building. Variables such as future climate, future building upgrades, setback temperatures, internal gains and ventilation are also explored. Adoption of the new approaches gave a 50% reduction in heating and cooling energy for the simulated office. The new approach together with optimized setback temperatures, ventilation strategies and higher efficiency equipment gives predicted heating and cooling energy demand close to zero. Recommendations for future regulation, design and operation of buildings are proposed

X-ray line emission from the Tycho supernova remnant

The observation of the X-ray spectrum of the Tycho supernova remnant in the energy range 0.5 to 20 keV is discussed. Four significant line features in the spectrum: The K alpha lines of silicon, sulphur, and iron; and the L lines of iron are examined. Comparisons between the silicon and sulphur equivalent widths and K alpha iron line energies of Tycho and Cas A are discussed. Suggest that the X-ray emitting plasma in Tycho is further from collisional ionization equilibrium than that of Cas A

Unit Commitment for Systems With Significant Wind Penetration

The stochastic nature of wind alters the unit commitment and dispatch problem. By accounting for this uncertainty when scheduling the system, more robust schedules are produced, which should, on average, reduce expected costs. In this paper, the effects of stochastic wind and load on the unit commitment and dispatch of power systems with high levels of wind power are examined. By comparing the costs, planned operation and performance of the schedules produced, it is shown that stochastic optimization results in less costly, of the order of 0.25%, and better performing schedules than deterministic optimization. The impact of planning the system more frequently to account for updated wind and load forecasts is then examined. More frequent planning means more up to date forecasts are used, which reduces the need for reserve and increases performance of the schedules. It is shown that mid-merit and peaking units and the interconnection are the most affected parts of the system where uncertainty of wind is concerned.Science Foundation IrelandElectricity Research Centre (ERC) Industry Memberske SB. 26/7/1

HEAO 1 observations of the X-ray pulsar 4U1626-67

Results of an observation of the 7-s pulsar 4U1626-67 with the A2 experiments on HEAO 1 are reported. The phase-averaged X-ray spectra which change radically as a function of pulse phase. Included in this spectral change is the sudden appearance and subsequent decay of a continuum or emission feature with a mean energy of 19 keV which contains about 1/2 the power in this spectral range. Pulse timing results include a new determination of the pulse period and a factor 8 reduction in the upper limit for the light travel time for orbital periods between 1 and 7 hours. The findings for this system are discussed and compared with the general nature of pulsar spectra

The prebiotic effects of biscuits containing partially hydrolysed guar gum and fructo-oligosaccharides - a human volunteer study

Prebiotics are non-digestible food ingredients that target selected groups of the human colonic microflora, thus having the ability to alter the composition towards a more ‘beneficial' community, i.e. selectively increasing populations of bifidobacteria and/or lactobacilli. In the present study the prebiotic potential of partially hydrolysed guar gum (PHGG) and fructo-oligosaccharides (FOS) in a biscuit was assessed in human volunteers. Fluorescent in situ hybridization using oligonucleotide probes targeting Bacteroides spp., Bifidobacterium spp., Clostridium spp. and Lactobacillus-Enterococcus spp. were used for the bacteriology and total bacteria were enumerated using the fluorescent stain 4′,6-diamidino-2-phenylindole. Thirty-one volunteers consumed daily either three experimental biscuits (providing a total (g/d) of 6·6 FOS and 3·4 PHGG) or three placebo biscuits for two 21-d crossover periods. Bifidobacteria significantly increased in number on ingestion of the experimental biscuits compared with pre-treatment and placebo population levels. Bifidobacterial numbers returned to pretreatment levels within 7 d of the cessation of intake of experimental biscuits. A correlation was observed between the initial faecal bifidobacterial numbers and the magnitude of bifidogenesis, with volunteers who possessed low initial population levels of bifidobacteria experiencing the greatest increase in bifidogenesis. No changes were observed in the other bacterial groups monitored during the trial. Thus, the prebiotic nature of FOS and PHGG was maintained in a final food product as evidenced from the selective increase in bifidobacterial number

Assessing the impact of interfering organic matter on soil metaproteomic workflow

Funding: Matthias Waibel was funded by the University of Galway College of Science and the Irish Research Council under GOIPG/2016/1215. The James Hutton Institute receives funding support from the Rural and Environment Science and Analytical Services Division of the Scottish Government. Open access funding provided by IReL.Soil organic matter (SOM) is biologically, chemically, and physically complex. As a major store of nutrients within soil, it plays an important role in nutrient provision to plants. An enhanced understanding of SOM utilisation processes could underpin better fertiliser management for plant growth, with reduced environmental losses. Metaproteomics can allow the characterisation of protein profiles and could help gaining insights into SOM microbial decomposition mechanisms. Here, we applied three different extraction methods to two soil types to recover SOM with different characteristics. Specifically, water extractable organic matter, mineral associated organic matter and protein-bound organic matter were targeted with the aim to investigate the metaproteome enriched in those extractions. As a proof-of-concept replicated extracts from one soil were further analysed for peptide identification using liquid chromatography followed by tandem mass spectrometry. We employ a framework for mining mass spectra for both peptide assignment and fragmentation pattern characterisation. Different extracts were found to exhibit contrasting total protein and humic substance content for the two soils investigated. Overall, water extracts displayed the lowest humic substance content (in both soils) and the highest number of peptide identifications (in the soil investigated) with most frequent peptide hits associated with diverse substrate/ligand binding proteins of Proteobacteria and derived taxa. Our framework also highlighted a strong peptidic signal in unassigned and unmatched spectra, information that is currently not captured by the pipelines employed in this study. Taken together, this work points to specific areas for optimisation in chromatography and mass spectrometry to adequately characterise SOM associated metaproteomes.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

Prebiotic lactulose as efficacious microbiota and metabolite modulator in cirrhosis environment

8openItalian coauthor/editoropenMancini, A.; Larsen, S.; Campagna, F.; Franceschi, P.; Amodio, P.; Pravadelli, C.; Pindo, M; Tuohy, K.Mancini, A.; Larsen, S.; Campagna, F.; Franceschi, P.; Amodio, P.; Pravadelli, C.; Pindo, M.; Tuohy, K

A Detection of an Anti-correlated Hard X-ray Lag in AM Herculis

Context {Earlier cross-correlation studies for AM Her were performed in various energy range from optical to X-ray and suggested that it mostly shows a high level of correlation but on occasion it shows a low level of correlation or uncorrelation.} Aims {To investigate the degree of correlation between soft (2-4 keV) and hard (9-20 keV) X-rays, we perform the cross-correlation study of the X-ray data sets of AM Her obtained with {\it RXTE}.} Methods {We cross-correlate the background-subtracted soft and hard X-ray light curves using the XRONOS program crosscor and fit a model to the obtained cross-correlation functions.} Results {We detect a hard X-ray lag of $192\pm33$ s in a specific section of energy-dependent light curve, where the soft X-ray (2-4 keV) intensity decreases but the hard X-ray (9-20 keV) intensity increases. From a spectral analysis, we find that the X-ray emission temperature increases during the anti-correlated intensity variation. In two other observations, the cross-correlation functions show a low level of correlation, which is consistent with the earlier results performed in a different energy range.} Conclusions {We report a detection of an anti-correlated hard X-ray lag of $\sim$190 s from the proto-type polar AM Her. The hard X-ray lag is detected for the first time in the given energy range, and it is the longest lag among those reported in magnetic cataclysmic variables. We discuss the implications of our findings regarding the origin of the hard X-ray lag and the anti-correlated intensity variation.}Comment: Accepted in A&A, 4 page

Quantifying distortions in two-photon remote focussing microscope images using a volumetric calibration specimen

This Document is Protected by copyright and was first published by Frontiers. All rights reserved. it is reproduced with permission.Remote focussing microscopy allows sharp, in-focus images to be acquired at high speed from outside of the focal plane of an objective lens without any agitation of the specimen. However, without careful optical alignment, the advantages of remote focussing microscopy could be compromised by the introduction of depth-dependent scaling artifacts. To achieve an ideal alignment in a point-scanning remote focussing microscope, the lateral (XY) scan mirror pair must be imaged onto the back focal plane of both the reference and imaging objectives, in a telecentric arrangement. However, for many commercial objective lenses, it can be difficult to accurately locate the position of the back focal plane. This paper investigates the impact of this limitation on the fidelity of three-dimensional data sets of living cardiac tissue, specifically the introduction of distortions. These distortions limit the accuracy of sarcomere measurements taken directly from raw volumetric data. The origin of the distortion is first identified through simulation of a remote focussing microscope. Using a novel three-dimensional calibration specimen it was then possible to quantify experimentally the size of the distortion as a function of objective misalignment. Finally, by first approximating and then compensating the distortion in imaging data from whole heart rodent studies, the variance of sarcomere length (SL) measurements was reduced by almost 50%.Medical Research Council (MRC)Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC)Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council (BBSRC)British Heart Foundation Centre of Research Excellence, Oxfor